China’s ongoing expansion of its nuclear arsenal may be aimed at eventually achieving nuclear parity with the United States. But regardless of the rationale, China’s nuclear expansion, along with possible changes to its nuclear doctrine, are of great concern to India, its neighbor in South Asia. This report—based on interviews with nearly two dozen Indian security experts, including former military and government officials—assesses India’s strategic thinking on China’s nuclear expansion, and what consequences it may have for India’s own nuclear development and US interests in Asia.
Summary
- India is monitoring China’s ongoing expansion of its nuclear arsenal carefully, looking to identify China’s goals, gauge the impact on regional security, and determine its response.
- A significant increase in the size of China’s nuclear arsenal, together with the adoption of a generally coercive posture toward India or a change in China’s no-first-use (NFU) nuclear policy, could compel India to respond.
- Interviews with former senior Indian civilian and military officials suggest that India’s response will not seek to match China’s nuclear expansion but will address the imbalance qualitatively, focusing on developing longer-range and submarine-launched missiles and other technological enhancements.
- The strong expectation is that China will not abandon its NFU stance, though it may modify certain policies within its NFU stance.
- There was consensus among the interviewees on most subjects, but they were divided about whether China’s nuclear force structure will continue to emphasize land-based missiles or shift to emphasize submarines, which India has limited ability to track.
- India and the United States could both benefit from closer interactions on addressing the rationale and consequences of China’s nuclear expansion.
About the Report
This report examines attitudes among India’s strategic community toward China’s ongoing expansion of its nuclear arsenal and outlines the likely future direction of India’s nuclear policy in response to that expansion. Research was based on 21 interviews with retired senior Indian foreign service officers and military officers, as well as with influential scholars. The report was commissioned by the United States Institute of Peace’s South Asia program.
About the Author
Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan is a resident senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) in Canberra. Before joining ASPI, she was the director of the Centre for Security, Strategy & Technology at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. From 2003 to 2007, she served as assistant director of India’s National Security Council Secretariat. She has authored, coauthored, or edited numerous volumes on military strategy and nuclear security.